Between a rock and a hard place – hunger or the Coronavirus?

With over 1.4 million cases and 82 thousand deaths, as at 7^th April 2020, the Coronavirus pandemic has sent shock waves across the world and shows no signs of stopping soon. Projections and estimates about the extent of the outbreak are a dime a dozen, but one thing that most projections appear to agree on is that by the time the virus is contained or a vaccine is made available to the public, most people would have had an infected relative or would know someone personally, who was infected.

The grim projection is largely due to the rate at which the Virus spreads and the long incubation period, which leads to many asymptomatic patients (silent carriers) being able to spread the Virus even before they become aware of their own infection. For comparison, the 1918 flu pandemic (Spanish flu), with a similar mode of transmission, infected around 500 million people (about 25% of the world’s population at the time), killing between 17 million and 100 million people, over a three year period.

The Coronavirus threatens to disrupt entire industries and change the way people live and interact with each other. It also threatens to drive the global economy into a recession. In response to the uncertainties resulting from the Virus, financial markets have, over the last two months, suffered record-breaking losses, precipitated by large sell-offs, as investors scrambled for safety (cash). Many businesses have seen demand for their products drop significantly, leading to them shutting down production facilities and offices.

Businesses around the world have initiated cost reduction measures that often involve laying off workers, to help cope with the impact of the Virus on their operations. In the US, the number of people filing for unemployment claims rose to 6.65 million by the end of March 2020 and is expected to soon exceed 8 million. Similar measures are leading to higher rates of unemployment in other affected countries.

Governments and Central Banks around the world have enacted regulations and implemented policies to fight the spread of the virus and to help the economies cope with the impact of the virus. In Germany, France, the UK and other European countries, governments have agreed to offer emergency aids to companies to help them cope with the impact, and the US government approved a $2 trillion bail-out fund to curtail the impact of the Virus on businesses. Canada has passed a $75 billion relief package and economic stimulus to assist Canadians and Canadian businesses.

The measures taken by these governments aim to protect companies from going under, protect citizens from job losses, and cater for those citizens who, inevitably, lose their jobs. Furthermore, Governments in most of the affected countries have enforced restrictions on the movement of people, to help slow the spread of the virus. These restrictions do not, in most cases, apply to movement associated with the delivery of essential services such as healthcare, food, etc. Specifically, in most European cities, and in some parts of the US, and Canada, grocery stores and pharmacies have remained open, to prevent shortage of food supply.

Nigeria, with about 240 cases and a population of over 200 million people, is currently in a delicate position. Recognizing the small window of opportunity to curtail the spread of the virus, albeit about three weeks late, the Federal Government has enforced lockdowns, for an initial period of two weeks, in the country’s commercial capital, Lagos, as well as in Abuja and Ogun State. These lockdowns include major markets, restaurants and grocery stores.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced a $139 million (N50 billion) Targeted Credit Facility (TCF) as a stimulus package to support households and small businesses affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Federal Government has also sought the National Assembly’s approval for a $1.39 billion (NGN500 billion) Intervention Fund aimed primarily at upgrading healthcare facilities in the country. In addition, Nigeria’s Finance Minister confirmed the government’s plan to raise around $6.9 billion from multilateral lenders to offset the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy.

Despite the above measures, the lack of a reliable database, a chronic infrastructure deficit (lack of access to clean running water, low number of hospital bed space and healthcare workers per million people, lack of proper food storage systems, etc.), high population density and congestion in cities such as Lagos, will pose challenges to the government’s attempts to fight the Coronavirus.

On the lack of a reliable database, millions of Nigerians have no valid means of identification (International Passport or National ID) or verified house address, no mobile phones or access to the internet, and as at November 2019, it was estimated that over 40 million Nigerian adults, over 40% country’s entire adult population, did not have bank accounts. Millions of Nigerians simply do not exist on any “system”, but this should come as no surprise for a country that is unsure about the exact population of its citizens.

Furthermore, Nigeria has a vibrant informal sector comprising mainly of low-income earners, who depend on their daily earnings to provide food for themselves and for their families. With over 100 million Nigerians already living below the poverty line, a lockdown of this nature is bound to aggravate the circumstances for poor and vulnerable Nigerians who may be forced to choose between going out to make a living and reducing the risk of contracting the Coronavirus.

How will the government’s stimulus package reach those who are most in need before they run out of food? How will these individuals be identified and contacted? How will the delivery be conducted to ensure the safety of Nigerians who obey the government’s order to stay indoors (rather than work for their daily bread) and to make sure they are not exposed to a higher risk of contracting the virus at the food / package collection centers?

The best time to have had the answers to these questions was at least four weeks ago. However, to prevent the kind of chaos that could result if this Pandemic isn’t handled properly, a carefully executed plan would need to be made before hand. As has been seen many times in history, during a crisis like this, every action taken by leaders appears to be an exaggeration, only to be found to be inadequate by the end of the crisis.